Binay will wallop Aquino in 2016 – survey

MANILA, Philippines – The consistent frontrunner in presidential polls, Vice President Jejomar Binay, will not be threatened so easily.

The results of a confidential survey obtained by Rappler show that, in a one-on-one, Binay will wallop the administration’s best bet for the 2016 presidential elections – President Benigno Aquino III himself.

Binay will get 62% of voters nationwide while Aquino will get 36%. 

This is according to a survey conducted between September 7-11, 2014 by Laylo Research Strategies (LRS) headed by Junie Laylo. It was commissioned by supporters of the Vice President. The survey involved in-person interviews with 1,200 likely voters across 37 highly urbanized/independent cities and 71 provinces nationwide, for an error margin of +/- 3%.

With the presumptive candidate of the President’s party lagging behind in surveys, the administration has floated the idea of an Aquino re-election bid, although this is prohibited by the Constitution. It was meant to throw a monkey wrench into the plans of those aspiring to run for president in 2016. (READ: 2nd term for Aquino? No thanks, say 6 in 10 Filipinos)

In the Laylo survey, Binay dominates across the board. The Vice President beats Aquino 55% versus 39% in the National Capital Region; 78% versus 22% in Northern Luzon; 58% versus 39% in Southern Luzon; 53% versus 47% in the Visayas; and 60% versus 37% in Mindanao. The small difference in each island group accounts for the undecided.

The survey was conducted as the Senate blue ribbon sub-committee was investigating the alleged overpricing of the Makati City Hall II Parking Building during Binay’s term as Makati mayor. It does not cover the Vice President’s televised speech to respond to the allegations made in the Senate and the succeeding allegations that he owns an undeclared 350-hectare farm in Batangas.

Presidential elections in the Philippines, however, are never a two-way contest given its multi-party system. In the last presidential elections, there were 10 candidates for president. 

Roxas worse off

Meanwhile, if Binay were to battle it out with the Liberal Party’s presumptive standard bearer – Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas II – in a one-on-one, the President’s party mate would suffer worse.

The survey results show Binay will beat Roxas, 69% versus 29%, nationwide. The regional breakdown of the results shows that Roxas will lose even in his bailiwick, the Visayas.

Binay will defeat Roxas 62% versus 29% in the National Capital Region; 81% versus 19% in Northern Luzon; 62% versus 34% in Southern Luzon; 60% versus 40% in the Visayas; 73% versus 24% in Mindanao.

Both Binay and Roxas planned to run for president in the 2010 elections. They gave way to then Senator Aquino. 

Binay versus Pulse

A survey by another polling firm, Pulse Asia Research Inc, show that Binay continues to dominate the 2016 presidential race, although his numbers have plummeted a significant 10 percentage points as a string of corruption allegations were made by his critics and political rivals in the Senate hearings. The Pulse survey was conducted September 8-15, around the same time as the Laylo survey. (READ: VP Binay’s lead in presidential poll drops)

Binay acknowledged that the Senate probe is hurting his planned candidacy. In media interviews, however, Binay raised questions about the longer list of possible candidates that was used in the latest Pulse Asia survey than the list in the survey before that, thus the drop in his numbers.

“Unang-una ho, maraming pangalan ang idinagdag doon sa presidentiables. Ang pagkakaalam po namin labinglima ho ‘yung itinanong. Kumbaga sa division, kapag mataas ang divisor, mababa ang answer,” Binay said in a radio interview in North Cotabato last week, October 10.

(First of all, a lot of names were added to the [list of] presidentiables. As far as I know, there were 15 names.)

Laylo, who did the national survey on presidential poll scenarios, used to be with the Social Weather Stations. He became the resident pollster of Malacañang during the time of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, then of the Manila Standard during the 2010 election period. Laylo’s clients include businessmen, private companies, government agencies, funding agencies, media outfits, and politicians from various political parties. – Rappler.com